EB-2 Priority Date Cutoff Prediction

On August 30, 2012, Mr. Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa office issued predictions for the Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 as follows:

• Employment Based (EB)-1 Visa demand continues to be very high;
• Employment Based (EB)-2 India is expected to probably go back to 2006 compared to the earlier prediction of 2007.  This is due in part to the high usage of EB-1 as well as retrogression in 2012.  There is also a slight possibility of it falling back to 2005.  The forward movement under this category is expected to be slow;
• Employment Based (EB)-2 China will have a cutoff date further ahead than India;
• Employment Based (EB)-2 worldwide may go current in October or November of 2012;
• Employment Based (EB)-3 worldwide priority dates may remain steady unless heavy demand from EB-1 & EB-2 slows it down.

The Visa Office is unable to accurately predict the demand as the USCIS is not providing it with real time data on EB-3 to EB-2 & EB-2 to EB-1 upgrades.  While the initial upgrades where limited to India and China, now the Visa Office is seeing worldwide upgrades. 

The above predictions by Mr. Oppenheim are not assurances or guarantees by the DOS, there could be earlier or later cutoff date depending upon the demand for the visa numbers.